Our Predictions: The 2016 box office will be 'One' to remember
Posted Tuesday, January 19, 2016 at 3:19 PM Central
Last updated Tuesday, January 19, 2016 at 3:19 PM Central
by John Couture
This is my favorite week of the year in this business. This is the week that will define us in terms of our box office expertness for the entire year. This is the week in which Tim, Dannette and I will do our best to predict what the box office will look like come this time in 2017.
This is also the week in which we each try to pick the best sleeper films of the year, but more on that later in the week. Before we can look ahead, though, we need to first look back and see how we did in 2015.
Generally speaking, we predicted that 2015 was going to be huge (it was) and that The Force Awakens would top the box office (it did). Of course, you didn't need a degree in boxofficeology to nail those two predictions. How did we do beyond those two obvious items?
We actually did pretty well last year. We nailed 8 of the top 10 films, missing on The Martian (8th) and Cinderella (9th). While no one could have predicted just how massive The Force Awakens would be, we did do a fairly good job in predicting the dollar breaks in the top 15. We all overpredicted Age of Ultron and none of us were able to see just how massive Jurassic World would be, although Dannette came the closest.
We all had good moments, but we all also swung and missed on a few. Tim really had faith in The Fantastic Four to the tune of $230 million and ninth place finish, while Dannette and I had high hopes for Ted 2.
One thing is certain, though, we continue to get better at our projections and I think you will agree that our guesses for 2016 are the best yet. In 2014, we nailed 66% of the top 15 and last year we correctly placed 11 of the top 15; or 73%. This year, our goal is to correctly identify 12 of the top 15 and I am confident that we will nail that number.
While we fail to agree on the placement of any film but the top one, we all figure that this year will once again be one to remember for Disney. In our combined list, Disney films fill out four of the top five spots and half of the top 10. For the second year in a row, we predict that Star Wars will rule the galaxy, but after the surprises in 2015, nothing would shock us.
We also tend to agree that Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice will be massive, but not on the same level as Disney's premiere properties; Marvel and Star Wars. The one wild card amongst us is Suicide Squad. Tim gives it the most love with a 4th place finish while I'm the most bearish on it with a predicted finish in 14th place. Dannette splits us in the middle with a projected 10th place performance.
I'm also curious about the performance of Deadpool. While Tim and I were unable to pull the trigger on the R-rated action/comedy, Dannette showed it the love with a 12th place finish. I would love nothing more to see it in the top 15 at this time next year, but I really don't know if it can accumulate enough box office dollars with that R rating to be a real contender.
I would love to be proven wrong, though. Speaking of being proven wrong, I've stalled long enough. Here is the complete list. Let us know which ones we nailed and which ones we whiffed on.
|1||Star Wars: Rogue One||$551|
|3||Captain America: Civil War||$378|
|4||Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice||$366|
|5||Alice Through the Looking Glass||$290|
|6||Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them||$282|
|12||The Secret Life of Pets||$232|
|13||The Jungle Book||$231|
|15||Star Trek Beyond||$205|
|1||Star Wars: Rogue One||$475|
|2||Captain America: Civil War||$370|
|5||Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice||$280|
|6||Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them||$270|
|11||Alice Through the Looking Glass||$205|
|12||Star Trek Beyond||$200|
|13||The Secret Life of Pets||$195|
|1||Star Wars: Rogue One||$580|
|3||Captain America: Civil War||$425|
|4||Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice||$420|
|5||Alice Through the Looking Glass||$355|
|7||Star Trek Beyond||$260|
|9||Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them||$245|
|11||The Secret Life of Pets||$210|
|13||Independence Day Resurgence||$205|
|1||Star Wars: Rogue One||$600|
|2||The Jungle Book||$425|
|3||Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice||$400|
|7||Captain America: Civil War||$340|
|8||Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them||$330|
|10||Alice Through the Looking Glass||$310|
|12||The Secret Life of Pets||$290|