Our Predictions: The 2016 box office will be 'One' to remember

Posted Tuesday, January 19, 2016 at 3:19 PM Central
Last updated Tuesday, January 19, 2016 at 3:19 PM Central

by John Couture

This is my favorite week of the year in this business. This is the week that will define us in terms of our box office expertness for the entire year. This is the week in which Tim, Dannette and I will do our best to predict what the box office will look like come this time in 2017.

This is also the week in which we each try to pick the best sleeper films of the year, but more on that later in the week. Before we can look ahead, though, we need to first look back and see how we did in 2015.

Generally speaking, we predicted that 2015 was going to be huge (it was) and that The Force Awakens would top the box office (it did). Of course, you didn't need a degree in boxofficeology to nail those two predictions. How did we do beyond those two obvious items?

We actually did pretty well last year. We nailed 8 of the top 10 films, missing on The Martian (8th) and Cinderella (9th). While no one could have predicted just how massive The Force Awakens would be, we did do a fairly good job in predicting the dollar breaks in the top 15. We all overpredicted Age of Ultron and none of us were able to see just how massive Jurassic World would be, although Dannette came the closest.

We all had good moments, but we all also swung and missed on a few. Tim really had faith in The Fantastic Four to the tune of $230 million and ninth place finish, while Dannette and I had high hopes for Ted 2.

One thing is certain, though, we continue to get better at our projections and I think you will agree that our guesses for 2016 are the best yet. In 2014, we nailed 66% of the top 15 and last year we correctly placed 11 of the top 15; or 73%. This year, our goal is to correctly identify 12 of the top 15 and I am confident that we will nail that number.

While we fail to agree on the placement of any film but the top one, we all figure that this year will once again be one to remember for Disney. In our combined list, Disney films fill out four of the top five spots and half of the top 10. For the second year in a row, we predict that Star Wars will rule the galaxy, but after the surprises in 2015, nothing would shock us.

We also tend to agree that Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice will be massive, but not on the same level as Disney's premiere properties; Marvel and Star Wars. The one wild card amongst us is Suicide Squad. Tim gives it the most love with a 4th place finish while I'm the most bearish on it with a predicted finish in 14th place. Dannette splits us in the middle with a projected 10th place performance.

I'm also curious about the performance of Deadpool. While Tim and I were unable to pull the trigger on the R-rated action/comedy, Dannette showed it the love with a 12th place finish. I would love nothing more to see it in the top 15 at this time next year, but I really don't know if it can accumulate enough box office dollars with that R rating to be a real contender.

I would love to be proven wrong, though. Speaking of being proven wrong, I've stalled long enough. Here is the complete list. Let us know which ones we nailed and which ones we whiffed on.

Overall Predictions
1 Star Wars: Rogue One $551
2 Finding Dory $385
3 Captain America: Civil War $378
4 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice $366
5 Alice Through the Looking Glass $290
6 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them $282
7 Suicide Squad $260
8 X-Men: Apocalypse $255
9 Doctor Strange $253
10 Ghostbusters $243
11 Bourne 5 $235
12 The Secret Life of Pets $232
13 The Jungle Book $231
14 Zootopia $227
15 Star Trek Beyond $205

Tim's Predictions
1 Star Wars: Rogue One $475
2 Captain America: Civil War $370
3 Finding Dory $330
4 Suicide Squad $285
5 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice $280
6 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them $270
7 Zootopia $260
8 X-Men: Apocalypse $250
9 Ghostbusters $230
10 Doctor Strange $220
11 Alice Through the Looking Glass $205
12 Star Trek Beyond $200
13 The Secret Life of Pets $195
14 Bourne 5 $190
15 Angry Birds $180

Dannette's Predictions
1 Star Wars: Rogue One $580
2 Finding Dory $450
3 Captain America: Civil War $425
4 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice $420
5 Alice Through the Looking Glass $355
6 X-Men: Apocalypse $274
7 Star Trek Beyond $260
8 Bourne 5 $250
9 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them $245
10 Suicide Squad $235
11 The Secret Life of Pets $210
12 Deadpool $207
13 Independence Day Resurgence $205
14 Warcraft $200
15 Doctor Strange $190

John's Predictions
1 Star Wars: Rogue One $600
2 The Jungle Book $425
3 Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice $400
4 Finding Dory $375
5 Doctor Strange $360
6 Ghostbusters $350
7 Captain America: Civil War $340
8 Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them $330
9 The BFG $325
10 Alice Through the Looking Glass $310
11 Zootopia $300
12 The Secret Life of Pets $290
13 Bourne 5 $265
14 Suicide Squad $260
15 Warcraft $250

Comments:

Lucifer
Lucifer
1 year ago
Both Tim and John have the Ghostbusters reboot in the top ten? There's no way this even comes close to the top fifteen, let alone ten. If it does, I'll be shocked. I'm predicting another Fantastic Four, complete with the requisite finger pointing.

I don't see a single standout film for this year, so my guess is it'll be a free for all. Civil War and X-Men are two larger films that I'm personally looking forward to, but I ZERO interest in Rogue One.

Speaking of which, I'm not at all sure that Rogue One is going to do as well as some are expecting. The die hard fans will be there, sure, but it wont have the ten year hiatus Star Wars: TFA had going for it. It's a relatively unknown franchise to non fans, and I'm also guessing that a considerable amount of us will be burnt out on all the Star Wars saturation.
JustJasen
JustJasen
1 year ago
I think John and Dannette are crazy for thinking Warcraft will do as well as that. The trailer looks absolutely horrible; completely cheesy CGI. Warcraft would have done better 5-7 years ago, but it's popularity has dwindled within the past few years.

Rogue One will be the number one movie. It's numbers wont be TFA numbers, but it will easily be the number one movie. As far as "saturation" goes... a year between movies...yeah that never works well (LOTR, Hobbit, Hunger Games...oh wait...).
JMock
JMock
1 year ago
Yeah, I'm having a hard time deciding on Rogue One in terms of Box Office. In the end, I think it will be #1, but I think Civil War won't be far behind it. It definitely will not have the same take as The Force Awakens, but whether people know the story or not, when you slap "Star Wars" on it, people will go.
Lucifer
Lucifer
1 year ago
Agreed. WARCRAFT is a joke. There's no way that CGI mess breaks the top 15. The trailer looks horrible. I hope they didn't spend a lot of money on it.

I have to agree, while ROGUE ONE is not and will not be on my must see list, I suspect it'll be on top because, like JMock said, it's "Star Wars". It won't come close to TFA's domination though. No way.
Lucifer
Lucifer
1 year ago
Agreed. WARCRAFT is a joke. There's no way that CGI mess breaks the top 15. The trailer looks horrible. I hope they didn't spend a lot of money on it.

I have to agree, while ROGUE ONE is not and will not be on my must see list, I suspect it'll be on top because, like JMock said, it's "Star Wars". It won't come close to TFA's domination though. No way.
Lucifer
Lucifer
1 year ago
Not sure why my comment posted twice...
john
john
1 year ago
It's a glitch in the Matrix Lucifer. ;-)

I agree that Warcraft is a stretch, but when you get to #15, the choices are slim. Lots of sequels and the such. I figure Warcraft has a sizeable fanbase and I know that Universe is making it their priority title for 2016, so who knows.

I agree though that it looks like a CGI mess.
Lucifer
Lucifer
1 year ago
Perhaps some of my little Hellions have gotten loose.

While I cannot dispute your logic of choosing WARCRAFT's placement, I will say that it'll be a sad year at the cinema for me if that's really the best we have for a top 15.
 

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